Future Growth in Tech and Media Driven by Subscriptions, Not Ads (Full Transcript)

Speaker 1: Let's shift gears to money. The driver of growth historically in tech and media has been advertising. In internet and media companies going forward, the driver is likely to be subscriptions. So we have forecast out today where is the business going to grow. So today we're at 1.7 trillion dollars. We estimate that over the next five years the internet and media industry is going to add around 400 billion dollars in revenue reaching 2.1 billion dollars overall. And where's that money going to come from? It's going to come from subscriptions. Over half of it is going to come from subscription services. What kind of subscriptions are we talking about? Let's for an example, let's look at what's happening with apps. Five years ago 17% of the revenue for the top non-game apps came from subscriptions. Today it's 86%. And these are the apps you know. It's Spotify, it's HBO now, it's Match.com. We think this is going to intensify. We think this is going to continue to go on. So when you talk about subscriptions though, the biggest subscription numbers come at a pay TV. And we've got to look at where's there going to be winners, who's going to be really playing in this game. And we believe that the new winners are going to be the old winners as cord cutting happens. Cord cutting actually has been taking place at a very very slow pace. It's about 1% a year. And what's going on here? It's not necessarily, it's not like a typical tech transition. So you could see what happened historically with wireline and wireless penetration. The lines crossed around 2008. And part of the reason was because it was just a technology transformation. And frankly wireless was a better product than wireline. This is not the trend we're going to see in pay TV. The bottom line is people are interested in watching television. And our research shows that people are going to be willing to pay more for a broad selection of channels. This shows the range of pricing that people are willing to pay. And this, you look at this and you think, this is not just wealthy people. In fact, people at all income levels consistently are willing to pay for more channels.