Harry Enten Weighs Groundhog Forecasts for Winter Outlook (Full Transcript)

[00:00:02] Speaker 1: All right, full disclosure, there's almost no story that I disdain more than Groundhog Day. Maybe the lottery. I think it's usually an insult to our intelligence and a waste of our time. However, however, today is the singular exception because we have a groundbreaking way to look at these rodents and what they're saying. With us now, CNN chief data analyst, Harry Enten. All right, Harold. I hate it. I hate it so much. I don't even know if I can see the shadow of winter or not. I mean, I don't even know what that means.

[00:00:34] Speaker 2: You see the shadow. That means six more weeks of winter. And, you know, there's this whole idea of Pucks, Satani, Phil. It turns out there are a ton of rodents out there who are predicting the winter or the spring. And what are we talking about here? Groundhog calls for an early spring. Look at this. We got Staten Island, Chuck, here in New York. No, we've got General Beauregard Lee down in the great state of Georgia. He says no. How about Pucks, Satani, Phil? Of course, the most famous. He says no. Later today, we will, in fact, get Groundhog Sam Champion out on Long Island. And we will also have Groundhog Harry, my namesake, that's actually Harold Ramis, out in Chicago, Illinois. So the bottom line is this. The rodents are, in fact, united on this. We are going to see six more weeks of winter, according to at least these rodents.

[00:01:22] Speaker 1: You know, it's actually interesting. I know Sam Champion. I never knew he was a groundhog. He does. He's multifaceted. But of these groundhogs, who does the best job predicting?

[00:01:31] Speaker 2: Okay, so I think Pucks, Satani, Phil has been getting away with groundhog murder. But why do I say that? Why do I say that? It turns out his prediction, his accuracy rate, ain't too hot to trot. Get this. Groundhog forecast accuracy. Pucks, Satani, Phil, just 35 percent. It turns out that the two best groundhogs, if you're interested in predicting whether or not we're going to have six more weeks of winter, are General Beauregard Lee down in the great state of Georgia. And of course, Staten Island Chuck is actually number one. Eighty-five percent of the time, he has correctly forecasted whether or not we get six more weeks of winter. And of course, at this point, he says that, in fact, we are not going to get an early spring, therefore, six more weeks of winter.

[00:02:12] Speaker 1: And Staten Island Chuck has the hardest job because his life is always in peril. Yes, yes, yes. Let's talk about, and this is the reason to do this segment, all right. So you've crunched some data here. I've crunched some data. What is your analysis of all this data suggest?

[00:02:26] Speaker 2: Okay, so we see the accuracy rates, 85, 80, 35. I combine them with the forecast, and therefore, we create an Enton's aggregate, a weighted average, Enton's weighted groundhog forecast. And I'm sorry to say, folks, this is why I got the minute on today. This is why I got the long jacket on. We're looking for a long winter, six more weeks of winter. Of course, it's good news for the audience that the groundhogs, in fact, are calling for six more weeks of winter because otherwise I would have come out in my mankini instead if it was an early spring.

[00:02:56] Speaker 1: I qualify that as great news. That's great. Great news for the audience. Don't undersell it. All right. So we are now in February. You know, what are the chances that we're going to see a lot more snow because we've had enough already? We've had enough already.

[00:03:08] Speaker 2: Now, of course, the key question is, is it just going to be cold and dry or is it going to be cold and snowy? Well, according to the prediction markets, at least the chance that New York City gets over six inches of snow in the month of February, we're talking 51% chance. So hey, it could just be cold and dry and that would actually be less if we only got six inches than the 8.8 inches that we average here in Central Park, New York City.

[00:03:32] Speaker 1: Harold, this was informative. Thank you very much for that. Thank you. Go Bills. Good luck. Good. Let's see how they do next weekend. All right. Oh, mean. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.