Iran Protests: What Makes Regime Collapse Likely—or Not (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: So, is the Iranian regime going to collapse? Let me tell you what I think. On the one hand, you see extraordinary street protests, and they're happening all over Iran. That's what makes this one different. You're seeing lots of people, many more than have been involved in the past. But I still wonder whether this regime will be able to survive and muddle on and live to fight another day. Here's why. In general, what you look for when you see a regime collapse is divided elites. You need to see people, you know, the elite structure cracking. That's what you saw in Venezuela, where the vice president essentially sacrificed Maduro in order to stay in power. Not seeing that so much in Iran. You need to see a united opposition with a leader, charismatic leader, hopefully, a Nelson Mandela type. Not seeing that in Iran. And you need to see powerful economic elites that are backing the opposition. In this case, the Iranian regime has been under sanctions for so long, the Revolutionary Guard really run the economy. So not seeing that. Now, all that said, I could be wrong, because I'll tell you a great line of my friend Karim Sajdipour. These dictatorships look eternal until the moment they collapse, and then that collapse looks inevitable.