Labour blocks Burnham, fuelling Starmer jitters (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Well, let's look further at that breaking news with Andy Burnham having been blocked from standing as a candidate for an upcoming parliamentary by-election in Gorton and Denton by Labour's ruling body. As a directly elected mayor, Mr Burnham had to get approval from Labour's National Executive Committee after he applied to be a candidate on Saturday. Some NEC members were concerned about an expensive mayoral election to replace Andy Burnham and allies of the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, feared that he could mount a leadership challenge should he return to Westminster. Well, before that decision was made, the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, said this.

[00:00:41] Speaker 2: Andy has said in his own words that Keir is the best person to be the Prime Minister and he's made it very clear in his letter what his motivation is for wanting to come into Parliament. I do believe Andy Burnham because I take him at his word. I've never had any reason not to take him at his word. I trust him. As I say, we work very closely together and I am going to take what he says at face value because I know I can do that with Andy.

[00:01:02] Speaker 1: That was Shabana Mahmood speaking earlier on the Laura Koonsberg programme. Let's speak to Emma Burnell. She's editor of Labour List. Emma, had you seen this coming?

[00:01:16] Speaker 3: Yes. I think it was more than 50-50 that the decision would go this way. I think there were many people counselling that that might be a mistake or there were other people saying the opposite. But I think given the make-up of the committee and some of the attitudes that we'd seen being reported in the last couple of days, I think that it did seem that this was the way it was going to go.

[00:01:44] Speaker 1: What problems, though, does this result cause for the Prime Minister and the Labour Party generally?

[00:01:52] Speaker 3: Well, there's like an ironclad rule in the Labour Party that if you make a ruling that is intended to benefit your faction, it almost always redounds on you. It almost always goes against you in ways that you just hadn't envisaged. And I think that may be the case here. Andy Burnham might not be the individual who is vested with the leadership speculation, but that's not going to quell leadership speculation. And I'm afraid that in attempting to do so, it just looks more like Keir Starmer is weak.

[00:02:28] Speaker 1: Emma, you probably need a drink. So I'm going to let you grab a glass of water. Stay with us, though, and we'll fold you back into the conversation in a minute, because also joining us is Meghan Kenyon, political correspondent for the New Statesman. I hope you don't have a frog in your throat, Meghan, and I'm relying on you. Tell us what you think of this decision that they've made to block Andy Burnham from taking part in this by-election.

[00:02:54] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, as Emma said, it kind of wasn't that surprising. I think as soon as the by-election had been announced, there was speculation, one, that Andy Burnham would put himself forward, but also that if he chose to do so, he would be blocked. I think, you know, obviously, as I just said, it wasn't a surprising decision, but I think there will be several consequences for the prime minister after this. Obviously, yesterday had several members of his own cabinet saying that Andy Burnham shouldn't be blocked. You know, Lucy Powell and Ed Miliband both saying things along those lines. Angela Rayner, former deputy prime minister, today saying something similar, and Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London. So, you know, and it's not just them. There's MPs within the party who I think will see this as the wrong decision. But I guess the logic being put forward by that NEC officers group was that Labour didn't want to have to fight a by-election for the Manchester mayoralty and run the risk of reform winning there, having control over policing in Manchester, because obviously that role includes police and crime commissioner. So, yeah.

[00:04:06] Speaker 1: You mentioned, just to back up a second, you said there could be several consequences now for the prime minister. Spell those out for us.

[00:04:13] Speaker 4: Well, I think this doesn't shut down leadership speculation. It's not just Andy Burnham who has been rumoured to be considering posing a challenge to the prime minister. I mean, one person who, and as he sort of flagged yesterday, has been subject to a lot of briefings is Wes Streeting. I mean, I think he and his comments about Andy Burnham yesterday was quite strategic. He said, you know, it was a decision for the party, not the cabinet, but then said that all of the anonymous briefings that Andy Burnham had been subjected to in the past few days were disgraceful. And obviously, you know, last week we saw reports in The Times, allies of Keir Starmer kind of saying that he should sack Wes Streeting because of sort of repeated moments where he's kind of stuck his head above the parapet. But yeah, I think this won't shut down those sort of conversations. And there's definitely movement within the parliamentary Labour Party, and this could just galvanise it.

[00:05:14] Speaker 1: Let's bring Emma Burnell from Labour List back in. Emma, you've been listening to what Megan says. I mean, to what extent does this leave, in your view, the prime minister weakened within his own party?

[00:05:27] Speaker 3: I think it does, because a strong leader accepts a challenge and takes on all comers. By saying, I don't want this thorn in my side in the Labour benches, it doesn't stop leadership speculation. As Megan has said, there are plenty of other people that people are speculating about. What it does say is say, I cannot stand up to this speculation. I think that's a real problem. I think Starmer would have looked stronger if he'd said, you know, we're a united team and we're better with all of our talents on these benches. The other problem, of course, is that Labour are going to fight a by-election one way or another. That is going to happen. And while there was absolutely no guarantee that had Burnham been selected as the candidate, he would have won, he is popular in Manchester. He did outstrip the Labour Party when it came to the vote for his mayoralty. He did better than the average. So if Labour loses that by-election, again, anything could happen. Labour could have a great candidate and they could fight a great campaign. But the national polls are painful at the moment for the Labour Party. That 13,000 majority currently held, if that's overturned, I just think that is a moment of pure crisis for the Starmer leadership. Whereas if that had been overturned with Andy Burnham in post, that might have actually been a better result than them losing it with any other candidate.

[00:07:14] Speaker 1: Let me just share with you both this extra information that we've got from Chris Mason, our political editor. He says that the Prime Minister was among those who had a vote at this morning's meeting to determine whether Andy Burnham could stand in this by-election. And Sir Keir Starmer, Chris Mason is telling us, voted to block him standing. Prime Minister's allies say that Burnham is doing a very good job as the mayor and a mayoral by-election could cost the party hundreds of thousands of pounds, the cost to the country of millions of pounds during a cost-of-living crisis. And they feared a divisive campaign. Those who blocked Andy Burnham intend to make it public that during a period of geopolitics dominating the headlines and deep concerns about the cost-of-living crisis at home, there'd be no appetite for the country to return to political psychodramas of the Tory years. That's the explanation, Megan, that is being given. To what extent will that satisfy everyone in the Labour Party?

[00:08:20] Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not sure. I guess, as Emma said, the Labour Party is still going to have to fight a by-election in the next few months. And I don't think that will bring – the fact that they won't have to fight one in Manchester will bring an end to the psychodrama. I mean, you know, figures like Zia Yousaf from Reform and Zach Polanski from the Greens are already being rumoured to be planning to run in those seats. I mean, nothing has been confirmed yet. But I think people will probably look on this as it's not really to do with wider circumstances and more to do with the prime minister's own circumstances. I can very much see Labour MPs coming to those conclusions.

[00:09:03] Speaker 1: A little bit more from Chris Mason, saying that he's been told that it was 8-1 in favour of blocking Andy Burnham and that the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, who is the chair of this committee, abstained. I mean, she didn't need to cast a deciding vote. The deputy leader, Lucy Powell, apparently voted to allow him to stand. I mean, this tells us something about the relationship, doesn't it, Emma, between Lucy Powell and Keir Starmer?

[00:09:35] Speaker 3: I think it's less about the relationship between Lucy Powell and Keir Starmer, which, I mean, it started badly. It seemed to be getting better in recent weeks. And Lucy, up until yesterday, whilst saying that she thought that Andy should be able to run, also said that she felt like this was a time to get behind Keir Starmer. She was riding both horses there. And, you know, that choice has been forced upon her in this meeting is more coming from Starmer's side than hers. How she responds to that, we've yet to see.

[00:10:13] Speaker 1: And, Megan, just a final thought from you. How does the prime minister move forward and put to bed any ideas that leadership is up for a challenge?

[00:10:27] Speaker 4: I think that would be quite difficult because, you know, it already seems as though the speculation is kind of, it's already there. It's quite difficult to sort of shut that down. I think all he can hope for is sort of the May elections, which I think a lot of people within the Labour Party have pointed out to me as being a make or break moment, aren't quite as bad as polling currently suggests they could be.

[00:10:51] Speaker 3: I think if this by-election goes badly, that May deadline may move forward.

[00:10:58] Speaker 1: OK, there's a lot to keep across then. And this decision today has certainly raised a lot more questions that will need to be answered. Megan Kenyon, political correspondent for The New Statesman, and Emma Burnell from Labour List. Thank you both for being here.