Labour NEC blocks Burnham MP bid amid leadership tensions (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Light the match and stand back. We're recording this at 12.33 on Sunday, and I'm talking to you just after big news has come in from the Labour Party after a couple of days of wild guessing games. They have decided to block the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, from running as an MP in the Gorton constituency of Greater Manchester. Why is all that so dramatic with so much jeopardy? Well, because Andy Burnham has made no secret of the fact that one day he has his eyes on number 10. Keir Starmer sees him as a rival, and given how unpopular he is, Keir Starmer and his allies have succeeded in stopping Andy Burnham in the race to become an MP. But here's the problem. Lots of Keir Starmer's colleagues, lots of people in the Labour Party, obviously Andy Burnham himself, think that it's an outrage that he might not be allowed to go ahead and stand. There's a bit of an official statement from the Labour Party that I want to read you, but I won't read you the whole thing in full. The statement says directly elected mayors and police commissioners must seek the express permission of Labour's ruling body before seeking nomination as a candidate. It says the NEC believes that causing an unnecessary election for Greater Manchester mayor would have a substantial and disproportionate impact on party campaign resources. It also says although the party would be confident of retaining the mayoralty, the NEC, the ruling body, could not put Labour's control of Greater Manchester at any risk. So in other words, the party said it would be too expensive to have a race for the mayor, and that they'd be worried about reform taking it. The problem for Keir Starmer is he might have in the short term stopped one of his rivals coming back to loom over him on the benches. But in the long term, this is going to drive some people in the Labour Party crazy. And his critics can easily suggest he just looks scared. So there's a fight ahead without question. Here's our conversation from earlier with Paddy and Joe about what this might mean.

[00:02:10] Speaker 2: Well, this whole thing could be out of date. We're here with newspasters who may know more in the future than we do.

[00:02:15] Speaker 1: That's always a funny feeling, isn't it?

[00:02:17] Speaker 2: Yeah.

[00:02:17] Speaker 1: So if you're listening to this now, you will inevitably know more than we do at 1039 just by virtue of being alive. Assuming that we know more every minute we're alive, don't we?

[00:02:26] Speaker 2: We've drafted expert witness to help us work out what will happen today, the chronology and the politics, all on Sunday's newscast.

[00:02:34] Speaker 1: Shall we just do the headline situation before we get into... Oh, sorry. My naughty phone is pinging, but I am going to keep looking at it because there's all sorts of news unfolding as we speak.

[00:02:43] Speaker 2: Yes. So Shabana Mahmood, who's the chair of the NEC, has been out today, which is decision day for this question on Andy Burnham. Block him or back him?

[00:02:56] Speaker 1: Exactly. And we discussed at some length yesterday, rather breathlessly, I hope not, but probably yes. Basically, it's a nightmare for Keir Starmer either way. If Andy Burnham is allowed to stand as an MP, ends up back bum on seat on the Green bench, that's a nightmare for Keir Starmer because one of the people who would quite fancy replacing him one day is then there. Everyone will second guess all the time. Worse than having him as Manchester mayor. If he does block him, there is a row afoot that could, I think, it's not mad this morning actually to say it could bring the whole thing crashing down. Joe, how would you? Yeah. I mean, I was talking to people till late last night and I've been in touch with people this morning. You just get that sense that this is such a moment of high jeopardy for Keir Starmer. And a couple of people close to all of this have even suggested to me actually one of the problems here is he doesn't understand how weak his position really is. Anyway, we'll get into all of that. Joe, I'm dying to hear what your assessment is of it.

[00:03:56] Speaker 3: I think there is one argument, though, that is if you're in a weak situation and you may get challenged after the May elections, why not minimise the number of other threats on the field? You can see, especially if you do have control of the NEC, why you wouldn't do that. And there are certain people on the NEC who have told me they think it is very possible that he will be blocked in the next couple of hours, even though there will be a backlash. And MPs seem so split on this, depending if they're on the sort of soft left or more to the centre, as to whether this is a distraction and about ego or whether it is about democracy and Keir Starmer looking weak. And I thought Shabana Mahmood on your programme, Laura, did an expert job at walking that tightrope because she's chairing this meeting of NEC Officers at 11. She wants to look independent, saying she had respect for Andy Burnham, but also nodding towards some of the arguments on the other side, which principally seems to be, well, you went for a different job 18 months ago, and it's going to be very, very expensive to have a by-election.

[00:05:07] Speaker 1: The problem is, I think most people I've spoken to would suggest that the position of strength for Keir Starmer would be to say, come on in. Of course, Andy, it would be marvellous to have you. And any attempt to block, even to have this tiny group of the NEC, not the whole lot over the decision, just makes it look like he's scared, either scared of reform taking the seat or taking the mayoralty in Manchester, or indeed scared of having Andy Burnham in the House of Commons. And I don't like to overstate things, honestly, even though I get very excited about stories. But, you know, people I've spoken to have been using words like insane at the notion of blocking him. Flipside also, other people would say it would be nuts to invite the fox into the henhouse. But I suppose all I'm trying to say is this is a real, real moment of high, high, high jeopardy.

[00:05:59] Speaker 2: Because there is, in recent memory, the story of another mayor who entered politics. He had blonde hair. I can't remember his name, but his precedent for trouble afoot, trouble at mill. What kind of tone? Jo says she thought he thinks she was expertly toning. What kind of music did Shabana Mahmood play on this question?

[00:06:25] Speaker 1: A very careful, deliberate music. Very carefully thought through. Well, I'm the independent chair, so I can't possibly say anything. Now, it was coincidence that she was the one doing the Sunday interviews today. I have to say, I suspect the whole Labour Party was probably quite relieved that it was her because she could say, I'm the chair, so I can't say anything. The difficulty is other cabinet people and senior figures like Lucy Powell and Ed Miliband have already been out there shooting their mouths off saying, I think Andy should be allowed to run. Suspicion there is they're all doing that because he's promised them a load of jobs. Should he end up in number 10? Angela Rayner potentially back as deputy PM. Ed Miliband said to have had the possibility of being a Burnham chancellor dangled before him. Those are whispers. I would say Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner don't get in touch and say that we're talking complete nonsense. But that is what people believe. Some people believe is going on here is not just Andy Burnham's ambition, but a group on the soft left who think this is the moment where they can get on their path to capturing the crown because Keir Starmer is not delivering. And we said this yesterday, but I think it's important to underline, this is all happening because Keir Starmer is very vulnerable because people are very unhappy with his leadership and he's very unpopular in the country. This isn't just because politicians are doing what they love to do, which is argue and fight with each other and have a pop and have a go and it's all snakes and ladders and who's up, who's down. That's what this is a symptom of, isn't it?

[00:07:52] Speaker 3: Yeah. And Shabana Mahmood may also be looking to the future. Now she may deny this too, but I thought she must be thinking about the future for herself too, whether she wants to be a leadership contender or a senior cabinet minister under Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, Andy Burnham. You do not want to end today, Sunday, looking like you're somebody who has punctured those ambitions. You want to try and keep your fingerprints off this decision, especially if it's controversial. So I thought in a weird way, it was perfect that she could make the chair point saying, I've got to be independent.

[00:08:30] Speaker 1: Exactly. It was a bit of an insurance policy for her. Let her stay out of it. Shall we have a listen to how she tried to, well, I was going to say defend. Defend is the wrong word. This is how she answered the question of should or should he not run as an MP?

[00:08:42] Speaker 4: Look, I think we should take Andy at his own word. I really appreciated the tone of the letter that he wrote yesterday. He addressed that letter to me as the chair, but it was for the wider party as well. And his case, as he has made it, is to want to come in and be part of the team and to take the fight to reform using the success of Manchester as part of that argument.

[00:09:02] Speaker 1: But if he does that, he could leave the mayoralty up for grabs in reform, which is a much bigger job with no offence to the individual MPs. That's a huge job compared to being one.

[00:09:11] Speaker 4: Which let me just deal with that in a moment. But Andy has said in his own words that Keir is the best person to be the Prime Minister and he's made it very clear in his letter what his motivation is for wanting to come into Parliament. I do believe Andy Burnham because I take him at his word. I've never had any reason not to take him at his word. I trust him. As I say, we work very closely together and I am going to take what he says at face value because I know I can do that with Andy.

[00:09:33] Speaker 2: Can I be the one to say who are the 10 who are on the selection subcommittee of the NEC?

[00:09:40] Speaker 1: Yes, so we can be proper squares now. Even for newscasters, this is niche. Okay, so there are 10 people who will make this decision.

[00:09:46] Speaker 2: Can I try have a go at guessing them?

[00:09:48] Speaker 1: Yeah, you can.

[00:09:49] Speaker 2: Because I don't know them.

[00:09:50] Speaker 1: But then if you run out, then that will leave me and Joe to fill in like the last maybe one or two.

[00:09:55] Speaker 2: Well, that'd be fun. So I think Keir Starmer's on the selection.

[00:09:58] Speaker 1: Yes, he is. So he's going to vote for what Keir Starmer wants to do. As we understand it, he at this point is said to be wanting to block Andy Burnham.

[00:10:07] Speaker 2: I think Shabana Mahmood's on the selection committee.

[00:10:10] Speaker 1: Correct.

[00:10:11] Speaker 2: I'm not clear if she has a vote.

[00:10:13] Speaker 1: Yes, she does. And if it's a tie, she might have the casting vote.

[00:10:17] Speaker 2: And now I've run out of names.

[00:10:19] Speaker 1: Okay, Ellie Reeves. She is on the NEC. She is also Rachel Reeves' sister. I imagine, but I don't know if you would agree with this, Joe, that she would probably be on the side of blocking Andy Burnham. I would have thought.

[00:10:36] Speaker 3: You would think so. You'd think so. She's closer to Starmer than Burnham, definitely.

[00:10:40] Speaker 1: So then we have Lucy Powell, the deputy leader of the party. She has already overtly says she thinks that Andy Burnham should be allowed to run. So that's one in the other column.

[00:10:51] Speaker 2: Right. I've got four. I've got one. Oh, I had two. So I'm up to six.

[00:10:54] Speaker 1: Okay. Six. Where did you get six from?

[00:10:57] Speaker 2: I've only got four. Shall I do the vote? Shall I be the last to be in? Yeah, exactly.

[00:11:02] Speaker 1: I mean, we may be completely wrong, but let's do this. So this is 3-1.

[00:11:05] Speaker 3: Joe, you keep going with the list. Peter Wheeler is the vice chair of Labour's NEC. You won't have heard of him. The NEC treasurer, Mike Payne, and then two representatives of two trade unions, the GMB and USDAW, both of which are quite sort of Starmerite unions at the moment.

[00:11:22] Speaker 1: Yeah, and there's been lots of discussion in union circles about the right thing to do and the wrong thing to do. Whispers to me this morning and then the last 24 hours suggest that both those unions are likely to block, but I would say that that is definitely not confirmed. And those other officers of the party that you mentioned are likely to be seen as Starmer allies. So if all that comes to pass, then Paddy, if you're doing the tally, we're probably over the six that would be required to block Andy Burnham.

[00:11:52] Speaker 3: Yeah, but I think we've only named eight of the 10. Two more. Gurinder Singh Josan, who's an MP, the PLP representative, who I don't know, but I think he's a sort of blue Labour, West Midlands MP, and therefore you think would be a Starmerite, certainly his predecessor, I would call a Starmerite. And finally, the CLP representative is somebody called Abdi Diwali.

[00:12:15] Speaker 1: Right, and the CLP means the constituency Labour parties, the members, and members do not like being cut out of decisions. So from our tot up, that may well prove to be completely wrong, and has been an incredibly niche parlour game for a Sunday morning. But that suggests that the count on the committee of 10 would be likely to vote for blocking Andy Burnham. However, the letter that my sticky paws have got is from officers of the wider NEC, who are trying at the last minute to get a pause on the whole timetable.

[00:12:54] Speaker 2: They're not involved.

[00:12:55] Speaker 1: They are not happy. They believe and let me just read you some of this. Dear Shabana and Peter, we are writing to you as NEC chair and vice chair as members of the NEC. We have deep concerns about this process. The wider NEC should have their say. It is unprofessional and unacceptable. This looks like undemocratic interference. We are hemorrhaging members and losing funds. We refuse to let any circumstances accelerate that situation further. We ask for an immediate pause of the current timetable and that the whole committee should be included. Now look, I don't think that's likely to happen.

[00:13:42] Speaker 2: No.

[00:13:42] Speaker 1: But as a little flavour of how unhappy people are about how this is all being rammed through and it looks like it's being controlled by Starmer's allies, it's not a happy ship.

[00:13:52] Speaker 3: And Shabana did say to you on your programme, Laura, that the core of the NEC, these 10 officers dealing with parliamentary selections, is quite normal. So that would, I suppose, be the NEC officers response to that letter, even though I'm sure whatever happens here is going to be incredibly controversial and some people are going to be very, very unhappy.

[00:14:14] Speaker 1: That's right. But someone very experienced in the party said to me last night, look, this is the kind of process, yeah, sure, you use it in the run up to a general election. The leadership is trying to get their candidates on the ballot paper when you're dealing with hundreds of people and you're kind of trying to ram it through and make sure you've got your allies in place. To use it in this kind of process when the stakes are so high and the characters are so well known and it's about the future direction of the party, it's a different order issue. And the huge potential advantage, someone was joking to me this morning, actually, the ideal scenario for Andy Burnham here is that he does get blocked, because then he doesn't run the risk of losing the by-election. He doesn't lose his nice job as Manchester Mayor, where he's been very successful in many ways, and also enter the narrative of him being the great martyr.

[00:15:01] Speaker 2: I mean, we were role playing that situation yesterday.

[00:15:05] Speaker 1: We were, yeah. God knows what we said yesterday, because we were very excited by the story.

[00:15:09] Speaker 2: Well, I think there's a lot of traction in that, because the blocking seems to be the favoured of the insiders. I came out yesterday saying I don't think he'll be blocked, just in order that we had an interesting rivalry. Yes. But just leaning into the fact that he is blocked, it means sort of everyone wins, because Keir Starmer will look like he's weakened Frit, but Andy Burnham gets to fight another day. It's not the end of Andy Burnham's leadership ambitions if he doesn't go this time to a by-election, whose outcome is uncertain, because we're dealing with multi-party politics. Britain is in new primary colours politically, and we can't and should never take constituents for granted in an election.

[00:15:48] Speaker 1: 100%, especially by-elections, which can be completely crackers, nor indeed the enormous election that there would be at the Manchester Mayoralty, right, which that is a major election.

[00:15:57] Speaker 3: £4.7 million it cost last time, so it wouldn't be cheap this time either, I think.

[00:16:01] Speaker 1: And that's one of the arguments that's been made by Starmer's allies, is look, this whole thing would cost a lot of money. But I think the onus that's being suggested to me is that on Starmer's allies, if they do block him, the onus will be on them to get out there and make a good, convincing argument for why they did this. And one of the things here is it plays into the different levels of politics that we have right now. So being an MP is an incredibly important job as part of the fabric of our country. Being a big, powerful Metro Mayor, with control over police, control over hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of pounds, a big national political platform, I think if we get real, that is a bigger political danger to lose for Labour than it is to lose a by-election. I think that's the brutal kind of truth of it. I'm not doing down the importance of MPs, but I think that's true.

[00:16:52] Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael Gove was on Radio 4 this morning saying that, saying also, beware of unlocking this leadership problem, because it didn't go well for us in the Conservatives. He said, I would block Andy Burnham, but I would do it by saying, you've already got a top job. Never mind my top job, you've got a top job running Manchester.

[00:17:13] Speaker 1: And the risk for some people who are close to Starmer in that camp have been saying to me is, everyone's obsessing about this by-election. Actually, get real, think about the mayoralty. On some polling, it looks like it might be easier for reform to win the mayoralty than it would be to win that by-election. So the argument was going, and I was going to say the early hours of this morning, not the early hours of this morning, on the phone in conversations last night. Get real, the risk of having a reform mayor with control over police, a big national platform, is much bigger than having a backbencher who takes the tally of reform MPs from six to seven. Now, in any way for Keir Starmer to make that argument, it's either saying, well, are you scared of Andy Burnham or are you scared of reform? I mean, it's not an argument that you're making for a position of strength, but it's interesting that Westminster and the lobby focus, much as I love the lobby, has been very much about the by-election and I think less so thinking about what the consequences of the mayoralties might be. We know how Boris Johnson used it to be king over the water. We know how Andy Burnham has used it very effectively in the last few years. And I think maybe that side of things has been slightly underlooked.

[00:18:22] Speaker 2: I think that's true. I think it's a typical of the Westminster-focused bubble arty to just to kind of ignore parts of the country which are run in different ways. I think it's a really fascinating argument you're making to me. It's making me see it in a new way. And of course, it does all come together today. The meeting starts at 11, Joe.

[00:18:43] Speaker 3: Starts at 11. We don't know how long it will last. And we won't necessarily get an announcement immediately after. The NEC is not a hugely transparent organisation. And presumably, it would be appropriate for Andy Burnham to get a call from the party general secretary or maybe from Shaban Mahmood, the chair of the NEC, before anyone else. I think your point, Laura, about the importance of the Manchester mayor job is something that a lot of MPs are also thinking about. One that jumped out at me yesterday was from Joni Reid on social media, a Scottish Labour MP, who said he's not even halfway through his term as mayor. And frankly, mayor of Greater Manchester is a bigger job than being a backbench MP. So either he's seeking a quieter life, or he's on manoeuvres if it's the last thing we need in the run-up to the May elections. And I would contest, Paddy, your view that this would be good if Andy Burnham was blocked. Because I think the timing would be absolutely perfect getting this seat. One, it is a seat that makes sense for him to have. It's obviously popular in Greater Manchester. We saw that with this incredible result at the last election, 2024. The timing is perfect. You get into Parliament two months ahead of the May elections, a possible leadership challenge. You have time to get your staff together, start making relationships with MPs, build alliances with those on the soft left. This is the perfect moment for Andy Burnham. And I think if he was rejected and blocked, that makes his path to power that little bit more difficult.

[00:20:17] Speaker 2: I do feel schooled by the two of you. And I'm saying...

[00:20:20] Speaker 1: Oh no, we didn't agree though. I agree with you.

[00:20:22] Speaker 2: Well, the thing is, I feel schooled generally just by being in this room. But I think the thing is, when you said they're going to have to pick up the phone after the NEC makes its decision, I can't help thinking that it would have been a very good idea if they'd all picked up the phone before Andy Burnham declared to run. Because you could have said, guys, there is a potential for Labour to be weakened by a psychodrama leadership skedaddle. Why don't we talk about it in advance?

[00:20:47] Speaker 1: Well, then you've got to imagine though, that all of these characters actually enjoy talking to each other on the phone. I think the other thing to say though, as you allude to there, is probably most importantly of all, that the public booted out the Tories with a shocking defeat, because they'd had enough of endless, sometimes nonsensical infighting about who was going to be in charge and the direction of the party. Of course, there was Brexit and a pandemic and all those other very big serious things that happened too. And Brexit was partly as a product, actually, of infighting on the right that had gone on for a very, very, very, very long time. But Keir Starmer's whole shtick to the public was, I'm going to end the drama. I will be Mr. Sensible. It'll all be calm. His posh phrase was, politics will tread a little lighter on your lives. If after 18 months in office, this is what the public's seeing of this party, not just that actually government is pretty hard and it's taking longer for them to be able to show any results, but actually they're fighting amongst themselves.

[00:21:57] Speaker 2: And he's going to China.

[00:21:58] Speaker 1: And he's not even going to be in the country this week. I mean, talk about maximum jeopardy.

[00:22:03] Speaker 2: What do you make of that, Jo? The Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party takes a big decision, which is controversial in either way it goes, today, and then goes to China.

[00:22:13] Speaker 3: That's a classic, isn't it? Many of the trips you must have been on as political editor, Laura, where you're in some glamorous location with these big sort of geopolitical figures, big world leaders. And actually the UK Prime Minister is asking some seemingly quite provincial question about a by-election in Greater Manchester. We've seen that before. We can see it again. It looks silly, but it matters. And even if he's halfway across the world, Paddy, I don't think Keir Starmer is going to escape all those tough questions from the lobby press pack. They'll be chasing him down.

[00:22:47] Speaker 1: That's absolutely right. But it also means that for he and some of his key allies, I don't know what the staff list is going on the trip, but it also means they won't be physically present. And so much of politics is, despite whether or not you like taking phone calls from people, a lot of it's face to face, it's arm twisting, it's convincing, it's wrangling, it's going around the tea rooms. If he's out of the country, and some of his key lieutenants will be with him, that is not going to make this any easier, not least because some MPs think, look, the problem here is the optics, that he's never even here.

[00:23:16] Speaker 2: Because I think there's another meeting I'm being reminded about now, which took place in a restaurant between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. The granita pact. And I can't help but feel it would have been a very good idea for this party if Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer had met in a curry house.

[00:23:32] Speaker 1: But that would suggest that Andy Burnham is the obvious natural successor in the way that most people in New Labour would have seen Gordon Brown as being at that point, not later on. And you had all sorts of other people and David Miliband and people like, you know, other people.

[00:23:44] Speaker 2: But what do you think about my fantasy curry house meeting? Would it have been a bad idea?

[00:23:49] Speaker 3: How did the granita pact work out? I mean, medium term, not that well. And I think that granita is closed out. Wasn't it briefly a Mexican restaurant? I'm not sure what it is today.

[00:24:01] Speaker 1: But I mean, I'm not sure if Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer will get past the poppadoms, to be honest. I mean, there isn't any love lost between their camps, not least because of the dancing around this that Andy Burnham has been doing for some months. And if he goes ahead with this, you're going to still hear very anti-Andy Burnham briefing coming from some people in the central bit of the Labour Party. Remember what happened when he said that Labour's in hock to the bond markets? There was a genuine financial reaction. Do people who've been fighting for the Rachel Reeves-Keir Starmer vision of the Labour Party, which is all about stability, do they see Andy Burnham as being someone who's useful for them to have around? No, they do not. For people who've been at the heart of the kind of Keir Starmer-Rachel Reeves vision of the world, giving more prominence to someone who has said we shouldn't be in hock to the bond markets, when they would say, well, that's a financial reality when the country's got so much debt. Is that really the kind of journey that the Labour Party wants to go on? Some of them do, yes. But that's not the only strand of opinion. This isn't just about personality. This is also about policy differences too. And many people believe that Andy Burnham is very vulnerable on some of the kinds of policy platforms that he says he believes in. And that's all for this version of Sunday's newscast. But you can find a longer version of our conversation and all the episodes ever, wherever you get your podcasts, and of course on BBC Sounds. Bye for now.