Markets Bet Big on 10+ Inches as Winter Storm Nears (Full Transcript)

[00:00:02] Speaker 1: Alright, there are serious warnings about this major winter storm heading east, affecting 125 million people, maybe more, with forecasts of a foot and a half of snow possible in major northeastern cities like New York, Philadelphia, and Washington. So let's put that in some historical perspective. With us now, CNN Chief Data Analyst, Harry Etten. Good to see you, sir. Nice to see you. We get a foot and a half and a so in New York or Philadelphia or Washington.

[00:00:29] Speaker 2: How rare is that? Yeah. You know, one of the things that's been so interesting to me as a guy who went to weather camp as a kid who actually loves the snow is there really has not been a lot of snow recently in the northeast, and especially in January. I mean, take a look of this. Years with more than 10 inches of snow in January since 2017. Just two in Washington, D.C., just two in New York City, and just one in Philadelphia. We have been snow starved for the most part in the major metropolitan areas that line the I-95 from Washington, D.C. up to New York City. I'm hoping it turns around a little.

[00:01:02] Speaker 1: And to be clear, this is for an entire month. We're talking about getting more than this in a single day. What's this January been like?

[00:01:08] Speaker 2: Yeah, okay. So it's not just that the last few years we've been snow starved. Take a look. Snow this month, inches of snow so far this January. In Washington, D.C., a very sad 0.1 inches of snow. In New York City and Central Park, 2.5 inches of snow. I should note in some of the suburbs, it's been more than that. I was out in the suburbs of New Jersey, and there's plenty more than that. And in Philadelphia, 1.9 inches. So nowhere close yet to 10 inches of snow in either Philadelphia, New York City, or in Washington, D.C., less than 3 inches so far this month in all of them.

[00:01:42] Speaker 1: So the meteorologists are telling us we could get more than 10 inches of snow. That's what they say. What are the better saying?

[00:01:48] Speaker 2: Okay, what do the prediction markets say? Okay, so we see the 1.9, the 2.5, and the 0.1. So what is the chance for the month of January we get more than 10 inches of snow in these cities? All right, what are we talking about? In Philadelphia, we're talking about chance of over 10 inches of snow this month, 89 percent. New York City, 84 percent. Washington, D.C., which of course has the least amount of snow so far, so you're not building up from that base, 74 percent. So look, from this storm, the rest of the month, we are thinking that we are going to build considerably from where we are right now. Look, it's not a done deal yet for sure. This is why these are not 100 percent, but the idea of the chance of over 10 inches of snow this month look much higher than they would be based upon what you see so far.

[00:02:32] Speaker 1: We're talking about how big this storm is. This is the impact on the Northeast, but it could hit in some ways places like Dallas as well. So what are the bets there?

[00:02:40] Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, so you know what? We're talking about the Northeast. Look, you can hear my accent. I'm a Northeast guy. But this storm is huge, is huge, and this gives you chance that Dallas gets greater than 0.5 inches of snow this month. Look, 80 percent, 80 percent, and keep in mind, zero inches have fallen so far. So this is a storm that's really going to stretch all the way down from the southern part of the United States all the way to the Northeast, and it's going to have major impact.

[00:03:07] Speaker 1: All right, we're going to keep our eye on this, obviously, throughout the next few days, Harry. Thank you very much.