Munich warns of NATO strain as Ukraine talks grind on (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: You've chosen a grim motto for this conference, under-destruction, and it probably means that the international order based on rights and rules is currently being destroyed. But I'm afraid we have to put it in even harsher terms. This order, as flawed as it has been even in its heyday, no longer exists.

[00:00:33] Speaker 2: Joining us right now is Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who's in Munich as well. She's the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Thanks for coming in, Senator. What are you hearing while on the ground from European leaders, and what is the message you're bringing to them?

[00:00:50] Speaker 3: Well, we have a very large bipartisan delegation from the United States Congress, mostly senators, but we have a number of House members as well. And we are here to reaffirm the importance of the transatlantic alliance, the importance of our European partners, and the importance of NATO. And Chancellor Merz focused on the importance of NATO, not just to European security, but also to American security. And that's a message that all of us understand very clearly.

[00:01:21] Speaker 2: From what you're hearing, that's the message you're bringing. What are you hearing from other European allies? Are they nervous? Are they scared? Do they trust the United States will be there if they need it?

[00:01:37] Speaker 3: Well, clearly, the president's rhetoric around Greenland and Denmark has had an impact. And again, one of the reasons we're here with this bipartisan delegation is to reassure our allies that there is tremendous support in Congress. We are the Article I branch of the Constitution. And I hope that we're going to hear a positive message from Secretary Rubio when he speaks.

[00:02:06] Speaker 4: Earlier this week, a pre-conference report says that the world has entered an era of, quote, wrecking ball politics, and labels President Trump a demolition man of world order. Meanwhile, this morning, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said this.

[00:02:22] Speaker 5: Even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone. Dear friends, being a part of NATO is not only Europe's competitive advantage. It's also the United States' competitive advantage. So let's repair and rewive transatlantic trust together.

[00:02:53] Speaker 4: With us now is CNN political and national security analyst David Singer. He's a White House and national security correspondent for The New York Times. Good to see you, David. So you just heard the German chancellor there say the US is not powerful enough to go it alone. What is your reaction to that? And just expand on how important these relations are to US national security.

[00:03:14] Speaker 6: Well, we were waiting to hear from Chancellor Merz, in part because we wanted to see whether he was going to continue the line that you heard from Canada's prime minister at the Davos meeting just a few weeks ago. And you'll remember that that was known for a discussion of the rupture with the United States. And while you've just heard Chancellor Merz make the case that it was time to repair the relationship, most of his speech was about the importance for the Europeans not to be dependent on the US. And that really has been a theme through the year that he has been in office. And you're beginning to hear discussions here that you never heard before, whether Germany needed to be underneath the French nuclear umbrella, not under just NATO's, because you might not be able to rely on the US. Whether or not there needs to be a big enough military force in Europe that it could deal with Russia without the US being there, at least for conventional forces. These are the kinds of conversations that were pretty unthinkable, even during Trump's first term.

[00:04:26] Speaker 4: So last year, as so many of us recall, President J.D. Vance basically turned on European allies in that blistering speech that downplayed threats from Russia and China and put the blame on them for their problems, basically. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is taking a different tone already. Listen to what he said about Russia's war in Ukraine.

[00:04:46] Speaker 1: Do you expect to meet with President Zelensky when you're there?

[00:04:49] Speaker 7: I think so. I think he's going to be there, and there's a chance to see him. I believe it's on my schedule. I'm not 100% certain, but I'm sure we will. It's terrible. It's a war. That's why we want the war to end. People are suffering. It's the coldest time of year. It's unimaginable, the suffering. That's the problem with wars. That's why wars are bad, and that's why we've worked so hard for over a year now to try to bring this one to an end.

[00:05:13] Speaker 4: So how does this change in tone resonate with the allies of America right now there at the security conference?

[00:05:21] Speaker 6: Well, Secretary Rubio is going to be talking on Saturday morning, and I think many of the people who are in the hall for Vice President Vance's speech are going to want to go hear him. They'll be particularly listening for whether or not he uses the phrase from the National Security Strategy, which said that Europe was heading toward civilizational erasure. In other words, it was losing its European nature. But I think he will be a little bit more conciliatory. What's been striking here, though, is hearing the Europeans and the Ukrainians say, we want peace, but not at any cost. And a lot of skepticism that you will see President Zelensky ultimately be willing to give up land or settle for what may be halfway security measures. And we simply don't know enough detail yet about the negotiation and what the Russians will accept to know whether he'll have to make that choice.

[00:06:18] Speaker 4: Does it feel like there is actual progress being made on the war in Ukraine? Or has it all just been a lot of motion and activity without progress?

[00:06:30] Speaker 6: Well, certainly there has been a lot of motion and activity. And I think you have to give the Trump administration credit for the fact that Ukrainians, Americans, and Russians are now all sitting down together and talking. But as one European very senior official put it to me, there's a belief out there that Putin has every reason to want to continue the negotiations and no reason to want to conclude them. In other words, keep dragging this out, thinking that it will keep the United States from turning back on a lot of aid for arms and so forth. Right now, only the Europeans are really supplying arms. And that Putin is dragging President Trump along. You hear a very different account from the Trump administration, which says, look, we're making progress that the Biden administration never did because they never did actually get talks going.

[00:07:24] Speaker 4: So I want to turn to something else, the Canadian prime minister and what he said last month in Davos. Let's listen.

[00:07:31] Speaker 8: It seems that every day we're reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules-based order is fading. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.

[00:07:48] Speaker 4: So he noted this rupture of the international rules-based global order. How are other major world leaders looking at the US right now as you're speaking to them there at the security conference?

[00:08:00] Speaker 6: You know, I think they've come out largely where Mark Carney came out. Not all of them, obviously. The US has got a fair number of other advocates there, but Prime Minister Carney got a lot of applause in Davos for that. He was supposed to be here, but stayed in Canada because of that awful shooting that you've seen happen in Western Canada. And I think, you know, he probably would have been the star of the show had he shown up here. But what you heard from Chancellor Merz, I think, was, you know, pretty much a slightly toned-down version of what you got from Mark Carney, and what you get in private over dinners and lunches here and so forth when the cameras aren't on is a much more bald view of the same attitude.

[00:08:50] Speaker 4: All right, David Sanger, always great to have you on and hear your analysis. Thanks so much. More when we come back.

[00:08:56] Speaker 1: Great to be here.