One Year of Trump’s Return: Power and Polarization (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Welcome to the Global News Podcast on YouTube, where we go behind the headlines. And today we're looking at Donald Trump's first year back in the White House. We're joined by our chief North America correspondent, Gary O'Donoghue, in Washington. And Gary, what is the mood in America one year into Trump Mark Two?

[00:00:19] Speaker 2: Well, I think that depends where you are and who you ask. Among his supporters, many of them are very, very supportive, and indeed their support is hardening in terms of what he's doing in the world in particular and also here at home. For those who are opposed to him, of course, their opposition is also hardening. So this polarization that we've seen in America for many years that predates Donald Trump has solidified, has calcified in a way where there is very little common ground whatsoever between those who back the president and those who don't. And you've seen his approval ratings slide pretty much. But the core support that he has pretty much follows him wherever he wants to go. Give you a quick example. Most Republicans or a lot of Republicans were against any kind of adventurism in Venezuela. But as soon as Donald Trump went in and took Nicolas Maduro, that sort of turned around and they backed it. So what he what he does and what he wants to do, his core support will back him.

[00:01:22] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, let's look at what he's done on the international stage. There was much talk how this presidency would mark a return to American isolationism. And yet, as you say, he's seized a foreign leader. He's bombed Iran and basically gone around making lots of threats. What do you make of all that?

[00:01:42] Speaker 2: He would reject the idea of isolationism and he would use the phrase America first. And that's the phrase he's always used. Now, I think, you know, there might have been a time where that was a kind of introspective type of policy, getting jobs back, bringing jobs back to America, improving the manufacturing base, which we haven't seen much of all that kind of thing. Whereas his view is America first is essentially subduing, subjugating other countries around the world to America's will. And that's what he's been doing. And that's what he's been doing reasonably successfully. But at the same time, of course, he's been putting under enormous strain, unprecedented strain, the alliances that America has traditionally relied upon. But from Donald Trump's point of view, he doesn't think those alliances are all that necessary. And that's where he really differs from previous presidents who have, you know, believed, of course, that America is the most powerful country in the world, which it is in many and most respects. But previous presidents have wanted allies. They've wanted people to come along with their view in order to to project their view onto the world. Donald Trump doesn't care about other people's view.

[00:02:55] Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, related to that, he says he's ended eight wars. And yet the big one, Ukraine, which he promised to finish on day one, is still the fighting is still raging. What does that tell us about how he sees Russia, how he sees Europe and indeed how he sees the rest of the world?

[00:03:13] Speaker 2: It's an enormous frustration to him. He makes that very clear pretty much every time he's asked about this. He blows hot and cold, particularly on Vladimir Putin. Some people who take a generous view about his presidency say that is a tactical approach that keeps his opponents and keeps his adversaries guessing and that that is, you know, strategically a good thing to do. But as you say, the Russians in particular haven't acquiesced, haven't gone along with his view, have sort of played the game a little bit at various points in terms of negotiations, in terms of the the mood music, but really haven't changed their approach or the behavior in Ukraine whatsoever. And I think he finds that enormously frustrating. At the same time, of course, he's put a lot of pressure on European countries to do more in Ukraine. And indeed they are doing that. And to some degree, you'll find people who say, look, it's long overdue that Europe started to act in a more coordinated way, that it started to put a bit more muscle behind its strategic views, the so-called strategic autonomy that people have talked about in European terms for many years. But to get up to sort of gear up to that is taking time and will take a lot of time. And still you've got a diverse set of countries, albeit under the EU umbrella. And, of course, along with Britain in the case of Ukraine, but still a diverse set of countries that do have different interests. So the the extent to which they can act as one as one is under question, I think, at this point in time. But they're certainly trying to. But at the same time, this this traditional, this relationship that stretches way back, certainly to the Second World War between Europe and the United States, is under the kind of pressure I don't think anyone has seen for the last 80 years.

[00:05:07] Speaker 1: Now, President Trump has also made plenty of waves domestically, of course. Let's look at immigration first. He's been very successful in shutting the southern border. But even amongst his supporters, there's some concern over the actions of ICE agents across the country. Has he gone further than people thought he would?

[00:05:26] Speaker 2: I don't think he's done anything in particular that people weren't expecting or that he had said he would do. He did say he would crack down at the southern border. And the apprehensions at the southern border are a fraction, a minuscule fraction of what they were a year before. So to some degree, that is a huge political success for him. Now, people will point to other factors at play there, but the influence, the movement of people across that border. No doubt his policies have contributed significantly to that. I think the problem for him is that Americans do not like seeing their own citizens under the cosh on American streets. And those pictures that we've seen from Minneapolis and elsewhere and that tragic death of the protester in Minneapolis don't sit well, even with some of those supporters of Donald Trump. It looks to them like this is going too far now. They will, of course, support many of his many of his backers will support the crackdown in immigration. And they have record numbers of people in in in custody at the moment on immigration related cases. They managed to deport, I think, around 600000 people last year. That's not an enormous number in historic terms. It's pretty high, but it's not an enormous number. And of course, when you think back to his promise to deport every illegal alien from this country, that's in the realm of, you know, 11, 12, 13 million, whichever figure you choose to accept. So that's not going to that kind of rate. It's not going to happen under this current presidency.

[00:07:07] Speaker 1: What do Americans make of his handling of the economy so far?

[00:07:13] Speaker 2: This is a really tricky one because, you know, in some ways, the Americans had it very hard economically under the previous president, Joe Biden. Inflation did go up to historically high levels. That caused a huge pinch and significant sort of political damage to Joe Biden. And Donald Trump vowed to get that under control. But he's sort of blown hot and cold on how important he thinks the economic situation is. At times, he said, you know, I've brought the price of gas and eggs down and all that kind of thing. Now, the other times he sort of made fun of those who say that this these midterm elections, which we're getting later this year, will all be about the affordability question. So the one thing I think he he he can point to is that the imposition of the tariffs. And yes, they've gone up and down. They've been on and off and they've varied in their their nature. But the imposition of these tariffs hasn't led to the huge spike in inflation that many had predicted. Now, that may come, you know, the medium, long term. I mean, the thing about the medium and long term is they take a medium amount of time and a long amount of time to take place. So we'll see what happens about about those. But the huge spike hasn't taken place. Unemployment is still pretty low. There are some signs that it's taking people longer to find jobs, which is a concern for people in the country. And there are still concerns about, you know, basic prices of of household goods and how much it costs to to live. So there is a lot of pressure from below on Donald Trump to do more in that region ahead of the midterm elections. And he's made some pretty eye catching attempts to do that. I mean, for example, he's suggested to the credit card companies that they should cap their APRs, their annual percentage rates at 10 percent just for the next year, of course. Now, there's no sign that's happening and that would eat into their profits in an extraordinary way, given that, you know, most APRs on credit cards in this country and well north of 20 percent. So you can see the kind of hit they would take on that. But it's those sorts of things he seems to be grasping at or clutching at rather than moving towards some sort of structural issues, because they are they're much, much harder to solve, of course.

[00:09:25] Speaker 1: Now, you followed President Trump around when he was campaigning, including, of course, when he was shot. What do you make of how he's governed, often acting quite aggressively?

[00:09:41] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is a very different presidency to the first presidency, though that attempt to sort of co-opt the traditional types of people that served in government to his will, that he tried in the first term, that is all gone. He has deliberately, explicitly, very specifically surrounded himself with people of a clear like mind. And they are attempting to do whatever he wants them to do. What I would say is that he's obviously choosing to govern by executive order and in the sort of realm of foreign affairs. Of course, the presidency has the president has huge scope, which he has pushed to the limits in many ways. But a lot of the things he's been doing through the stroke of a pen, of course, the thing about those is that they can also be undone by the stroke of a pen because he hasn't engaged all that much with Congress beyond his big bill last year. Even though he controls both houses of Congress, they haven't passed legislation to sort of solidify, concretize the things he wants to change, the ways in which he wants to change this country, because those things are much harder to change with a new administration, a different administration in the future. You're getting stuff through Congress where you need 60 votes in the Senate for most things, which is very hard to get with a split Congress between Republicans and Democrats. You know, those things could really solidify a legacy, whereas the risk he has is that many of the things, if a different sort of flavor of president were to come in, many of the things can be undone pretty quickly.

[00:11:25] Speaker 1: Yeah. I was going to say, do you think he's changed the power of the presidency forever?

[00:11:32] Speaker 2: I think he has. And that is in part thanks to the Supreme Court. If you bear in mind that landmark decision on immunity that we had from the Supreme Court that gave the president, not Donald Trump, but the presidency, you know, huge scope for acting without the risk of being held to account on some issues. Donald Trump has embraced that and future presidents may embrace that as well and really push the boundaries in all sorts of ways. So there's no question that his term has his second term and his first term have have changed the nature of the presidency. And this constant pressure there's been really since the birth of the nation to to expand the executive branch has taken a huge boost under him. And you've seen that, you know, in the corollary of that, of course, is Congress, which last year spent weeks and weeks and weeks, not just through the shutdown, but voluntarily out of session, passing very little stuff and a few little bits of resistance from some Republicans on issues like the Epstein files and the War Powers Act in the Senate. A few little bits of resistance, but very little otherwise. Just in some ways, looking a bit like spectators to the American political process.

[00:12:49] Speaker 1: Gary, thank you. Gary O'Donoghue, our chief North America correspondent in Washington. If you liked this episode, please subscribe here on YouTube. And if there's any stories you'd like us to cover, leave a comment below. For more international news, download the Global News Podcast, wherever you get your BBC podcasts.