Seven Outcomes If the US Attacks Iran (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: So what could happen if the US does attack Iran? Here are seven possible scenarios. One, the regime collapses, and after a short period, there is an eventual transition to democracy. That's the best possible outcome, where Iranians get freedom, rejoin the rest of the world. Fairly unlikely, but possible. Second possibility, the regime survives, but rather like Venezuela, it loses some people, but it carries on, and it's forced to moderate its behavior, both in terms of cutting back on its nuclear and its regional ambitions and not crushing democracy protests as much. Again, a little bit optimistic. Third possibility, effectively a military coup. The Ayatollahs are no longer in charge, but the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps that has protected them and supported them, they now take over. That's fairly likely, at least if there is a devastating blow and the regime collapses. Then there are different ways that it could go quite badly wrong. Iran has still got a lot of ballistic missiles. It could lash out and fire these at the neighboring countries in the region, Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE. And it could also try to mine the Strait of Hormuz, restricting the flow of oil, damaging world trade. And it could also try and sink a US warship, which would infuriate Donald Trump, and that would probably generate a much bigger war. Finally, there is the possibility that if this attack is sustained and devastating on Iran, it could lead to chaos in that country and a massive refugee crisis.