Tariffs After One Year: Inflation, Jobs, and 2026 (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: It's been one year of the Trump administration and one year of tariffs. So what does that mean for you? Well, prices you would think would start rising a lot, but actually inflation has cooled down just a little bit. Trump came in with 3% inflation and it has fallen to 2.7%. So that's actually pretty good, but there are some things that you need to watch out for. Coffee, bananas, furniture, clothing, all of those prices have risen over the course of the year. And remember, 96% of tariffs are paid by Americans, not by foreign countries. And 80% of those tariffs are paid by U.S. businesses right now, not consumers. But JPMorgan thinks that equation is going to flip. And by the end of 2026, 80% of the tariffs are going to be paid by you, the consumer. And so prices could start to creep higher in 2026. The next thing you need to think about is jobs. Jobs have had the worst year in a non-recession year since 2003. And we lost jobs in the U.S. economy in three of five months over the summer and the fall. A lot of that could be because businesses were concerned about the direction of tariffs, and rather than spend money on hiring, they were just holding money close to their vest until they figured out what was going to happen. So where does all of this leave us? Well, there are some real big questions around the path that tariffs take in 2026. Trump is making big threats around Greenland, and that could raise tariffs to the highest point that they've been in his second term. But it's also true that we're raising an incredible amount of money. $182 billion of tariff money is coming in. And Trump has big plans for that, including potentially a $2,000 tariff rebate that'll land in your bank account later this year. So there's lots of questions. We'll have to see what the path is that tariffs take in 2026.