US Force Buildup Near Iran Heightens Escalation Fears (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Welcome to the Global News Podcast on YouTube where we go behind the headlines to find out more about a story and why it matters. Today President Trump says a big armada is heading towards Iran in the wake of a deadly and brutal crackdown on protesters by the regime. I'm joined in the studio by our defense correspondent Jonathan Beale. Jonathan tell us about the extent of this armada.

[00:00:26] Speaker 2: I don't think it is as big as the US Navy presence in the Caribbean. I think I was told about 20% of the US Navy was in the Caribbean when the US launched that military operation in Venezuela. What we do know is that the US already has a military presence in the Middle East. It permanently has a naval presence so there are a number of destroyers, three destroyers already there. So I think it's the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group that has given you know President Trump reason to say that an armada has arrived.

[00:01:04] Speaker 1: And the fact that they've arrived in the region with those comments of President Trump there's no way this could be a coincidence is there?

[00:01:12] Speaker 2: No because we know that this carrier strike group was in the South China Sea. It was not the area of operation that it was meant to be in. But it was suddenly diverted, changed course. I mean it's taken you know best part of 10 days maybe even longer to arrive where they need to be now. But they need to be there because you know we've heard President Trump up the rhetoric. First of all saying that help was on its way for the Iranian people. And then also making clear now as he says there's an armada there. So they have diverted considerable resources. We shouldn't just look at the naval assets that have gone. I mean as I said the US has a significant military presence in the region. Bases in Saudi Arabia, UAE, in Jordan. So it's the arrival of more military hardware to an area which already had quite a lot. And then lots of aircraft arriving. And when lots of aircraft arrive you kind of ask well is that preparing for strike action? And you look for a couple of things. First of all what kind of aircraft? Yes fighter jets which can deliver weapons. A lot turned up in the Middle East in the last two weeks. But also tankers which they would need to refuel them. And then just as significantly a lot of transport aircraft arriving at those US military bases in the region. And if you look at open source intelligence some of those those transport aircraft are carrying air defense systems. And the reason why you want air defense systems is because you're worried about retaliatory strikes. Because Iran still has the ability to carry out its own strikes. It's got a large stockpile still of short-range ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles as well. Now you know we don't have detail from the US military as to exactly what has been sent. But you can assume there will be of course US Army personnel on the ground in the region. Not in Iran I'm saying. There will be US Navy. The Air Force we know has a large presence there at the moment. Air defense systems and probably the US Space Force to you know to jam signals and the likes as well. So you know this is a whole force operation. And the US military which President Trump is keen to remind us is the most powerful military in the world. And I think he will be you know building up his forces if he takes that decision to carry out a military strike. Which let's be honest is not going to be as easy as it was during Midnight Hammer. Because that was you know focused targets. It was to try and set back at least or to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Specific sites. Lots of aerial imagery. It's not clear what exactly would he do this time round.

[00:04:09] Speaker 1: Presumably though this fleet of warships will be using intelligence from what the Israelis as well as the CIA.

[00:04:17] Speaker 2: Well they certainly have a close relationship. And I think that you know there have been certainly US spy planes flying in the Gulf. Both manned and unmanned. Gathering intelligence. They'll have a considerable amount of intelligence from the last time they carried out strikes on Iran's nuclear program. And I suspect have been monitoring the situation for some time. But you know if you're an enemy you will disperse your forces. You will do your best to change the position of ammunition stocks and supplies. Hard to move factories which could be targeted. And if you're Iran's leader supreme leader then you probably will be taking precautions as to where exactly you stay and move around. So but I think if you know we have to discuss I suppose the what are the potential targets. There's a much longer list than Iran's nuclear program. And it is probably much more difficult to decapitate the Iranian regime if that was President Trump's goal that it was taking out some nuclear sites.

[00:05:27] Speaker 1: But we know from last time they still have bunker busting bombs so-called. Are they going to need them if there's an attack now?

[00:05:35] Speaker 2: Well they could certainly use them. And I think it's worth remembering you know while we focus on what the military buildup in the region is those bunker buster bombs that were used during Operation Midnight Hammer to target Iran's nuclear program flew all the way from the States. Those B2 bombers. There was a lot of movement of forces around which were diversionary. So essentially to try to keep the enemy guessing. And in the end the sort of the fatal strikes if you like to Iran's nuclear program were delivered by bombers that flew all the way from America. And they've done that before. They could do it again. So I don't think we should just focus on what is on the ground in the region but realize that there is a lot more firepower they can call on from back home. I think you've also got to say this time that when Operation Midnight Hammer happened there was a retaliatory strike if you remember on Al Udeid air base a U.S. military base in Qatar. Seen widely as a token retaliation. And seen as a token because there was plenty of advance warning. They emptied the base of non-essential personnel. They knew the missiles were going to be fired. It has essentially been telegraphed by Iran. This time it may not be the case. And you know I've spoken to people who do war gaming in the Middle East and essentially look at the stocks of Iran's short range ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles. Remember Iran has provided Russia with drones. Shaheed drones are an Iranian product essentially. They have lots of those. And Iran is threatening retaliation. And that is why you're seeing the U.S. and I think at the urging of countries in the region, not just Gulf countries, Israel too, to have air defenses in place if Iran retaliates. Because it could still potentially overwhelm some of those air defenses. It has enough weapons to do that if it wanted to. But again of course the danger for Iran is that just escalates and then it all gets out of control. And the consequences for Iran which does not have a military as capable as the U.S. will be worse than for the U.S. You've said the U.S. has the biggest most powerful military in the world.

[00:07:49] Speaker 1: Would Iran really dare take it on?

[00:07:52] Speaker 2: So I mean it's a question isn't it of a regime survival. If the regime felt it was, and let's be honest, it's it's been in a perilous position with the protests in the streets and it's taken, you know, pretty, it's more than robust, it's violent repressive action to try and quell those protests amongst its own people. What would it do if it was attacked and it felt that the regime was about to collapse, was in danger of collapsing? I think you then got to ask, you know, if they're prepared to do that to their own people then there is always the potential that if they have the weapons, which they do, they could take retaliatory action. I mean it is a sort of, it is not quite the nuclear button in the sense of the real nuclear button but it is for Iran. If everything's going to collapse and regime survival is essential for doing something like that then it's possible they will.

[00:08:48] Speaker 1: I realise you have to qualify your answer, you can't see it to the future, but is Donald Trump going to do it?

[00:08:54] Speaker 2: I don't know. You know, let's be honest, we don't know. You don't build up military force in a region unless you want to have the option of doing something. But we also know that there has been talk of negotiation that, you know, it is a possibility that there may be some kind of negotiation but you kind of ask what's the end goal of negotiation? I mean ultimately I'm sure Donald Trump would like to see the back of the Ayatollah but I don't think that's going to happen imminently. I think if you look around the region and the insecurity, and it's not just the US that have been sending aircraft, for example the RAF, Britain has sent jets to Qatar for defensive purposes. A lot of countries, Gulf countries, are saying to President Trump don't do this and we believe that he may have held off military action for a while because there were concerns about the consequences in that region if he does carry out military action. Israel initially expressed concerns about not enough air defences. I think it probably is, you know, pretty much on the same page as how it views Iran, the same as Donald Trump. But the consequences for the whole region, and remember Donald Trump, he likes quick military action. He doesn't like long wars. He's made that clear. He has a policy of making America great again, and we've seen both in Iraq and Afghanistan the cost of America's long-term military operations in a country which ultimately didn't have, you know, it had some success but not huge, certainly in Afghanistan not huge success. So I think he will be reluctant to get in a long protracted conflict. He will ask, you know, and then we're into the realms of will it be symbolic? Will it really jeopardise the regime, a regime which has survived its own protests? So I think there's a lot to weigh for Donald Trump and there's a lot of good reasons not to do it, even if he sees good reasons to do it. So I think at the moment it is pretty hard to call.

[00:11:03] Speaker 1: Jonathan, thank you. Our Defence Correspondent Jonathan Beale. Plenty more in the Global News Podcast. Subscribe wherever you get your BBC podcasts and you can also subscribe to us here on YouTube. And if you have an idea for a story you think we should be covering here, do leave a message in the comments below.