Why Iran Is Watching Venezuela After Maduro’s Capture (Full Transcript)

Iran tracks Venezuela’s turmoil amid protests, sanctions, and fears of foreign intervention—yet key differences make a similar U.S. operation against Tehran unlikely.
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[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Why is the Iranian regime keeping a close eye on Venezuela? Let me explain. Over the past nine days, Iran has seen protests spread nationwide over deteriorating economic conditions. And now, Tehran's closest ally in the Western Hemisphere, Nicolas Maduro, has been captured in a U.S. military operation and taken back to the States to stand trial. Both Iran and Venezuela are oil-rich nations dealing with collapsed economies worsened further by crippling U.S. sanctions. There have long been adversaries of the United States, and U.S. President Donald Trump has issued direct threats against both regimes. These similarities have led some observers to question whether a U.S. military operation, just like the one we saw in Venezuela, could also target Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. But it's quite unlikely that that exactly would happen. There are actually a lot of differences between both countries. First, their political climates are quite different. Iran is a theocratic republic with an ideology deep-rooted in Shia Islam, while Venezuela is a socialist and secular state. At the same time, Iran has long suspected that the U.S. is after regime change, and therefore they've built this formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones and proxy groups that are strategically placed close to U.S. interests in the region. And when Israel struck Iran and a 12-day war started back in June, Iranians across the political spectrum and even the opposition united, revealing this aversion to foreign intervention or foreign military strikes on their nation. So it's a bit more complex than just a simple comparison. But perhaps a consequence of what happened in Venezuela is an Iranian regime who are already labelling protesters as rioters, mercenaries and foreign disruptors, cracking down harder on the opposition, who are yearning for change.

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The segment explains why Iran is closely watching events in Venezuela amid nationwide Iranian protests and economic deterioration. It notes parallels between the two oil-rich, sanctioned, anti-U.S. regimes and discusses speculation about whether a U.S.-style military operation could target Iran’s supreme leader. The speaker argues this is unlikely due to key differences: Iran’s theocratic Shia-based system versus Venezuela’s secular socialist government, Iran’s long-standing expectation of U.S.-backed regime change, and Iran’s deterrent capabilities (missiles, drones, and regional proxies). The speaker also points to Iranian public and opposition unity against foreign intervention during a recent Israel-Iran conflict, suggesting external strikes could rally domestic support for the regime. Finally, the segment warns that Venezuela’s example may encourage Iranian authorities to intensify repression by framing protesters as foreign-backed disruptors.
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Why Iran Is Watching Venezuela Closely
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Neutral: Analytical and cautionary tone: it weighs similarities and differences between Iran and Venezuela, notes risks of foreign intervention, and highlights potential for increased repression without overt emotive language.
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