Why Snowstorm Forecasts Vary So Widely (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Why do snowstorms have wildly fluctuating forecasts? I mean, I've once seen a mayor say there'd be between three to 16 inches of snow. But why? To help forecast the precipitation and temperature, we use models. None of them are perfect. It's impossible to perfectly map out mathematically or measure the atmosphere. There are well over 50 models with a lot of assumptions. Two that you'll often hear about are the European model or the GFS, an American model. The European model costs hundreds of thousands of dollars for full access while the GFS is totally free. Let's start basic though. A rough estimate is that for every 10 inches of snow, there's an inch of liquid. Few would care if the forecast called for 0.3 inches of rain and 1.6 inches fell. But in snow terms, that would be the difference between three inches of snow and 16 inches of snow. Beyond that, nobody cares if a forecast is off by a degree if it's 77 degrees versus 78. But 32 degrees versus 33 degrees could mean the difference between snow and rain. So which is it? Which model reigns supreme? Well, statistically speaking, the Euro model has been proven to be more accurate over the past two decades. Of course, it's not perfect all the time, like the time it famously botched the 2015 blizzard here in New York. But that is why forecasting is no easy science.