Poll Shows Democrats Ahead, But Leadership Still Struggles (Full Transcript)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Brand new CNN polling giving us a fresh glimpse of the political landscape heading into this year's hugely consequential midterms. President Trump, who will mark one year back in office this Tuesday, has been sounding the alarms about the prospects of a Democratic majority in the House. And our poll suggests there is reason for his concern. Democrats have a clear advantage when voters are asked which party they prefer to control Congress. A big sign they are enjoying tailwinds at this key moment. They currently have a five-point edge over Republicans, 46 to 41, outside the margin of error. On top of that, Democrats and Democratic-leading registered voters are far more enthusiastic than Republicans. 66 percent say they're extremely motivated to vote, compared to just 50 percent of Republicans. And that is a huge swing from October 2024, where Republicans were motivated by five points. But it's not all good news. And it's not all good news. It's not all good news. It's not all good news. It's not all good news. It's not all good news. It's not all good news. It's not all good news. news for Democrats, with our poll finding their leaders are still held in very low regard. We'll break this all down and more with an excellent group of reporters this morning. CNN's Alana Treen, Zolan Kano-Youngs with The New York Times, and CNN's Aaron Blake. Good morning to you all.

[00:01:14] Speaker 2: Good morning.

[00:01:16] Speaker 1: So look, this is the latest in a series of data points that are positive for the Democrats. You look at what happened last year. They won special election after special election. They over-performed even when they lost in these races. And now Trump's numbers are bad. Democrats have a five-point advantage in the generic ballot. It's still early. A lot's going to change before November. Are these early signs of a potential blue wave?

[00:01:42] Speaker 3: If you look at history, this kind of advantage at this point in the cycle can lead to that. I would say a five-point advantage on the generic ballot is not commensurate with a huge wave election necessarily. We have almost a whole year before. The election takes place. The thing in this poll that I think is really encouraging for Democrats is that enthusiasm edge, which we've seen dating back to last summer. The problem, I think, for Trump and Republicans right now is he is doing so many things that are testing the patience even of some portions of his base. You know, Greenland is not popular with his base. The tariffs are not terribly popular with his base. Are people going to turn out for Republicans for Congress if he keeps doing these things? And I think that explains a lot of why Democrats have this advantage.

[00:02:23] Speaker 1: Yeah, that swings. And the motivation is just something. The Republicans had a five-point advantage in 2024 about a motivated base. Now it's completely opposite. And you mentioned the wave compared to past elections, Aaron did. Just look at where things were back in January of 2018 and January 2010. Those were past wave elections on this question of who should control Congress. Back then, Democrats in 2018 of January, they had a five-point edge. They picked up 41 seats later in 2010. It was tighter. Republicans had a three-point edge. That was the Tea Party wave of 63 seats that Republicans picked up that cycle. Zolan, you were just in with the president interviewing him not too long ago. How concerned is he?

[00:03:09] Speaker 2: I mean, at this point, I think one of the issues with the messaging of the White House is you still have this defiance from President Trump when it comes to these political vulnerabilities. When we were in the Oval Office, we were asking him about, you know, one of the issues that Democrats have really seized on here, which is the economy and affordability. And those answers, I don't think they're really going to excite the base. We asked him about the $2,000 checks, for example, that he promised Americans from his tariffs, the money generated from his tariffs. And initially, when we asked him, he actually seemed surprised. He replied saying, wait, oh, I did that, right? He was actually surprised. He was surprised at those tariffs. And then he pivoted to the checks that he said that would be going to the military. And those are things that they're, of course, going to try to campaign on. That's right. When it comes to, when that's your reaction to being asked about some of these vague economic promises that are supposed to be addressing affordability, an issue that obviously the base cares about, you were brought back to the White House because you ran largely on the economy and helping working-class Americans. Right. That's your answer. You know, that's probably going to frustrate many Americans, including those in your base. I think this poll, as well as some of those vague promises that he's made, it's a promising sign that the Democrats' messaging thus far on the economy and affordability is starting to have some positive signs.

[00:04:41] Speaker 1: And before you jump in, another data point of which Republicans could have concerns about is the Cook Political Report. They put 18 House races that they are analyzing here, all moving. In the Democratic direction. That is from everywhere from California to New York, all of several states in between. What's your reaction to all these, all these pieces of data showing things pointing in one direction?

[00:05:08] Speaker 4: I'll say this. They know they have a major problem in the White House. And every conversation I have, at least privately, of course, they're not going to publicly, you know, communicate this. They know they have an issue and they need to get it in order. What I found really interesting, actually, was when the president met a week or so ago now at the Kennedy Center with a bunch of House Republicans, and he kind of gave them this message. And this is the message I know he's giving them in their private conversations, too. This idea of you need to talk about our successes. You need to communicate all of the great things I'm doing. And he's really putting the onus on House Republicans, of course, and Republicans in the Senate, too. But this was just a House Republican meeting. The problem is when I talk to people, a lot of the president's allies outside, as well, they say so much of what the president is doing, and Aaron, you touched on this, is actually getting in the way of that message. Everything he's doing with foreign policy, a lot of the, you know, the focus on Greenland or the tariffs, but also sometimes even when people are talking about Venezuela and his language about wanting to run Venezuela, things like that, they say, are hurting them. And that's something that the president, I don't think, has fully kind of understood behind the scenes.

[00:06:18] Speaker 1: And the question is, net asset or net liability? I think that's a question that I put to the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson. I asked him, look, you have purple Republicans running in swing districts, purple districts. What should they do about Donald Trump? Should they embrace him? And how do you feel about the fact that Democrats have an edge in the so-called generic ballot?

[00:06:42] Speaker 5: The generic ballot has Democrats up by about three. But if you look back at the last midterm, I think 2018 is a pretty good comparison. They were up by three. Three times that much at this point in the year. We are very bullish about the midterms. I'm absolutely convinced we're going to go with the majority. We have an incredible record to run on.

[00:06:59] Speaker 1: Do you embrace Trump? Should you swing district Republicans?

[00:07:01] Speaker 5: Run with Trump, absolutely. His policies are working. All boats are rising. These economic numbers are going to be off the charts. People are going to be feeling very good about their incomes and their opportunity and their liberty. And they're going to reward Republicans for those policies.

[00:07:17] Speaker 3: Republicans have a problem here. And in a normal election, you don't have a president who's in this position, who's as unpopular as Trump is. You keep your distance. You don't talk about him. You don't welcome him to your district. But Republicans need voters to be excited about Donald Trump to have their base turn out at all. They have a problem where their base is very much focused on infrequent voters who don't necessarily come out in midterm elections, who certainly don't come out in these special elections that we've been seeing recently. And so they can't just kind of shove him to the side and say, well, I don't really want to be associated with Donald Trump. I don't really want to be associated with him because so much of their base demands it.

[00:07:54] Speaker 1: And another piece of this poll is on the other side of the aisle. The Democrats, they have had rock bottom approval ratings. They may have been doing well in these special elections, but their numbers are not good, particularly when it comes to how Democratic leaders are handling their jobs. This is the question that was put in the CNN poll. 72 percent disapprove of the way the Democratic leaders in Congress are handling their job, even though they're enjoying these headwinds in the poll. They're enjoying the polls. You see that. And look at the second question about whether the Democrats are doing enough to oppose Trump. This is a question that was put to Democratic voters. 78 percent of Democratic voters do not believe they're doing enough to oppose Trump. So they're enthusiastic about the midterms coming out and voting in November, but they also think their leaders are doing a terrible job.

[00:08:42] Speaker 2: Right, right. I'm glad you touched on this because to me this is a we're basically seeing the same issue that we saw in 2024 extend to now. Where voters have been very clear on the Democratic side what they want. They actually want someone to fight for them, someone to fill the void of leadership and actually to push back on the Trump administration. This is a message that should go out to the different candidates in these different states. Now, whether that actually factors into how hard they fight back against Trump, whether they mention Trump, whether they go more progressive or more moderate here, I think that will be interesting, but it's very clear from this polling that we're seeing the same issues, the same issues that existed in 2024 still exist now. They have not yet addressed it, at least in Congress.