Speaker 1: The countdown continues with just under 50 days until the presidential election. Last week, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met for the first time on the presidential debate stage, and over the weekend, authorities thwarted a second assassination attempt against Trump. Despite security concerns following the second attempt on his life, Trump is showing no signs of slowing down his campaign schedule, hitting the trail in Michigan on Monday. Trump will also hold a campaign event in Long Island, an area that could play a pivotal role for the battle for the House majority. On Tuesday, Kamala Harris campaigned in Battleground, Pennsylvania, and will campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin later this week. Joining me to go on the record is Scott Tranter, Director of Data Science from Decision Desk HQ. Scott, as always, it's great to see you. Let's dive right into it. There's one new first post-debate poll by Morning Consult showing a six-point lead for Vice President Kamala Harris. Do you think we'll see similar debate polling results going forward with some of that post-debate bump for Harris?

Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like at least the early read is there are a few polls out nationally that show a few-point bump. We should see that extend down to the individual states like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or Michigan. But I would stress, you know, these polls are three- or four-point margins there, so one- or two-point movement while exciting. What would excite me is maybe a three- or four-point bump, not a one or two.

Speaker 1: That's an interesting point you bring up because we know that the Harris campaign has been very adamant saying that debates do not win elections. So definitely trying to lower some expectations there. Moving on to the Trump campaign and former President Trump. He was the target of a second assassination attempt while golfing at Trump International Golf Course over the weekend. Do you think this will play out at all in polling? Does this move any voters?

Speaker 2: You know, it's funny. It's crazy that we're saying it's the second assassination attempt to this election cycle. I think the first one was very galvanizing for the president's base and obviously a moment of sympathy for some of those swing voters. I think by and large that effect is going to be muted this time around. Certainly going to galvanize the base, fundraising around it, those types of things. I don't know that we're going to see the same effect as we saw over the summer.

Speaker 1: At the same time, we saw that Trump received some good news in a new Gallup poll that showed his favorability jumping five points over the past month. What do you think is behind this?

Speaker 2: I think a lot of it has to do with he's out on the trail a little bit more. He gets a lot of flack for what he says, but his style of saying exactly what's on his mind, that is appealing to some voters and that's not something they have seen a whole lot over the last couple years. I understand that sounds a little bit crazy because he's always doing that, but he's doing more campaign events than he was, say, a year ago. I think that's what we're seeing a little bit there, combined with the fact that there's quite a bit more polling and some of these polls move around quite a bit.

Speaker 1: They absolutely do. Right now, we are less than 50 days out from Election Day and we know that early voting is kicking off in a number of states, including Virginia, this Friday. Where do undecided voters stand right now?

Speaker 2: Right now, post-debate, depending on which survey you look at, they are a slight tilt towards Harris, but that can change. That might be a measurement error as well. As we go into early voting, you mentioned Virginia. North Carolina is struggling to get out the gate. Normally, they'd be out there voting right now, but they've got a ballot issue with RFK. We're going to see a few more states ramp up. I think it's neck and neck, at least among some of these independents, on where they're going to fall. Some of the other segments I'm looking at, other than just independents, female voters, African-American voters, Hispanic voters, those three segments look like they could potentially have a shakeup among these candidates and we might see some margins we haven't seen before.

Speaker 1: One thing I wanted to ask you about was we know that Trump and his running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, have amplified really unfounded claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio. Now the state's governor, Republican Mike DeWine, is condemning the remarks and sending state police to the city after numerous bomb threats. We also know that two universities around Springfield were also temporarily shut down over the weekend. Scott, is Trump at serious risk of alienating swing voters with this rhetoric that seems to have had some pretty negative consequences?

Speaker 2: It certainly is not going to help. We're a week and a few days after the debate. The biggest issue we're talking about is an incorrect comment made by the debate. The campaign, J.D. Vance specifically, part of the campaign is pushing it. I don't think that's helpful. At best it's not hurtful, but at minimum it's not helpful and it's really not the message they want to stick on, considering the polling still shows the Trump campaign has an edge on economy and the border issues that if they talk about, voters are more receptive to their message. And I'm not exactly sure how this Springfield, Ohio thing is helping them out, especially since it's just not true.

Speaker 1: On a slightly lighter note, Vice President Harris has received some pretty big celebrity endorsements from Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish recently. Scott, do you think this is going to give Kamala Harris any sort of boost with 18 to 34-year-old voters? We know that these two artists, in particular Taylor Swift, has quite a bit of sway with that voting group.

Speaker 2: Right, yeah, no, Taylor Swift is, you know, out of all these candidates we've talked about, I know she's not a candidate, she's going to have the highest favorability of pretty much anybody. So again, it's one of those things that can't hurt. If you're turned off by Taylor Swift endorsing Kamala Harris, you probably weren't going to vote for Kamala Harris in the first place. But if you were on the fence about Kamala Harris, hey, you're going to get a little bit more attention towards her, some of these other celebrities. At minimum, we're seeing the Harris campaign capitalize on it and fundraise off of it, which I think is going to be very helpful. So yeah, I think at minimum these types of celebrity endorsements are helpful for raising money down the stretch. And, you know, if they have any effect on turnout or voter registration in a close race like this, any marginal bit helps.

Speaker 1: You know, on that note, Scott, we know that well over 400,000 people clicked on Vote.gov's website following Taylor Swift's endorsement. I thought her endorsement was interesting because she, you know, obviously endorsed Harris in it, but she encouraged voters to go out, make their own decision, do their own research and click the link and register. I mean, do more. We know that that hasn't necessarily translated into higher rates of voter registration or even votes yet. But if more people are registering to vote because of that, I assume that could help Kamala Harris in terms of turnout. Is that correct?

Speaker 2: It is. And to be honest, it can help Republican candidates, too. When you register to vote, whether you register on the website or anywhere else, you go on a voter roll list that is available to Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians and everyone in between. And campaigns use those voter lists to get their message out. So I think registering to vote, no matter who you vote for, it puts you in the political conversation. It puts you on the radar of campaigns so they can communicate to you. And, you know, as Taylor Swift said, do your own research.

Speaker 1: Speaking of registering to vote, we know that Tuesday was National Voter Registration Day. And on that day, on Tuesday, a new poll from the Sine Institute for Policy and Politics at American University was released and showed 83 percent of young adults said they are worried about the state of our democracy. Scott, is this very bleak outlook from Gen Z voters and millennial voters going to motivate them to vote or will it result in them saying, look, I'm going to sit this one out. I'm going to take a step back because I'm sick of the noise.

Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's good to see a poll out of my alma mater. And it's an interesting one at that. Look, I have not seen past data on that. But I imagine if we ran that same question, say, in 2020, 2016 generational, I don't know that we'd see 83 percent agree that it's not a good outlook. But I would imagine the majority also agree. And I'm going to line that up with, you know, under 25 voter participation. It's not what it should be. And so while I think it is motivating, I think this is a warning sign for Gen Z. And it's potentially a motivating factor. At the end of the day, it's those 40-plus-year-olds who are reliable, going to show up in the morning or fill out their absentee ballot, are going to show up. But that 83 percent is eye-popping. And I can't imagine some of the younger generation isn't going to use that as a motivating factor to go out and vote this time.

Speaker 1: I learned something new about you every day. My alma mater is AU as well, grad school, not undergrad. But there we go. We love that alumni shout-out for American University.

Speaker 2: There we go.

Speaker 1: Yeah. So I want to turn to some recent polling that shows North Carolina and Georgia have solidified their status as toss-up states, which is a very positive development for Democrats. Decision Desk HQ shows Trump has a 0.3 percentage point lead in Georgia and only a 0.1 percent lead in North Carolina. Scott, how is the Harris campaign focusing their energy on the states, and what is boosting Harris's standing with voters?

Speaker 2: So these are the two most interesting states. I know you and I have basically spent the last nine months talking about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and we will down the stretch. But North Carolina and Georgia, the fact that those are so close tells you how close this race is. And there's a multitude of scenarios, both good, bad, and indifferent for both candidates, depending on who wins them. And the fact they're close tells me, man, the Harris campaign is doing something right because they weren't that close when Biden was at the top of the ticket. Donald Trump was comfortably ahead in both states when it was against Biden, and it is much closer now. I think that has a lot to do with her fundraising, her time spent in the state. And if we look at the ad spend in both states, the Democrats are spending tens of millions of dollars each week in those states, and they're outspending Donald Trump and the Republicans. And so I think that's why they're so close. But, man, if she's able to pick off one of those states and surprise win in North Carolina or care over Biden's win from 2020 into 2024, this whole election night will probably turn into election week.

Speaker 1: Right, right. And I want to move to a Midwestern state that we haven't really talked in depth about since earlier this year, and that is Iowa. The latest Des Moines Register MediaCom poll shows Trump's lead in the state is down to just four points. Now, Scott, a Democrat has not won Iowa since former President Barack Obama won it in 2012, and he won it in 2008 as well. But how optimistic should Democrats here be right now in Iowa, or is this sort of a result of Harris's momentum, and maybe Democrats can force Republicans to spend a little more money than they expected to in Iowa and focus on some of those more swingy states?

Speaker 2: Well, I'm going to be honest. I'd be surprised if the Republicans spend very much money at all in Iowa even after this poll. I mean, we'll wait to be seen, and this will be a provable point. If they start spending $4 or $5 million a week next week, we'll know. I liken this poll to some of the stuff we were talking about a few months ago when it looked like Donald Trump was only behind three points in Virginia or only behind three or four points in Minnesota. Iowa is solidly Republican, just like those states were solidly Democratic. There are a couple of close polls here and there, but I don't think one poll, and I know that Jan Seltzer is very good. She's got a track record of being very good there. I don't think that's going to be enough to spook the campaign. We're going to have to see a couple more, and I imagine they looked at it internally. I also don't think that's extrapolated up to a Wisconsin or a Michigan or a Minnesota or something like that. I know that's what a lot of people on Twitter like to do, but that's not. It's fun to do, but I don't know that there's a whole lot of empirical data to prove that because Iowa's close, Minnesota's even closer, Wisconsin or anything like that. So it's good to talk about, but I'm going to need to see a couple more to really, really see if Donald Trump is in trouble there.

Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll certainly be looking for those polls out of Iowa. Now I want to turn to the Senate map in a new poll from our team at The Hill. Emerson College and DC News Now shows that Prince George's County executive, Angela Alsobrooks, is leading former Governor Larry Hogan 49 to 42 percent. But here's what's so interesting, Scott. Our colleagues who covered the Senate, Al Weaver and Alex Bolton, both reported that at a gathering that the National Republican Senatorial Committee had last week, Republicans were saying their internal polling shows the race is essentially in a dead heat. So, Scott, how close is this race in reality?

Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I think the Emerson poll is pretty good. I do believe, you know, the Senate campaign thinks it's close. And, of course, they want to tell everyone it's close so they can keep fundraising up. I think there's, you know, some motivation on that side. Here's what I know is Maryland is strongly Democratic, both demographically and from a historical electoral perspective. You know, Larry Hogan, very popular Republican two-term governor, spectacular campaigner, has done the right things in terms of separating himself from Donald Trump and some of the Republican policies that may not be popular in Maryland. All that being said, I'm going to go with our forecast. That gives Angela Alsobrook a pretty solid chance of winning that state at 90 percent or greater. If we're going to see Larry Hogan, you know, have a chance in here, we're going to need to see several polls where he's three, four, five points ahead or at least tied. And that's what we saw when he was winning governorships, right? We didn't see polling where he was seven points down and he surprised people. We didn't see polling where he was one or two points down and then one or two points up right before Election Day. So, you know, I'd like to think it's close. It'd be fun to watch, but the demographics just don't hold. The fundamentals just don't hold. We'll have to see what it looks like down the stretch.

Speaker 1: Want to move south to Texas, and I know that last week, Scott, you and I talked about the likelihood of Florida, another red state, potentially turning blue this cycle with Democrats seeing some momentum there. Recent polling out of Texas suggests the Senate race could also be competitive. Now, I want to stress that it's still a very uphill climb for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas. But where does the contest between Senator Ted Cruz and his Democratic challenger, Congressman Colin Allred, stand right now?

Speaker 2: So, look, everyone, I think, has this perception of Texas being hugely Republican, and it is historically. It's a Republican state. Republican elected statewide officials, plenty of members of Congress and all that, and it has been trending democratically over the last 10 years, specifically with the influx of new voters and large growing Hispanic population. All that being said, Ted Cruz in 2018 scraped it out against, you know, what many considered a pretty good candidate in Beto O'Rourke by 2.6%. As of today, his average in Texas, he's up 3.5%. So while that doesn't feel right for Texas, right, everyone feels like Texas Republicans should be up 10 there, he is, in his average, he is up ahead higher than his margin was when he won in 2018. So, you know, Ted Cruz should campaign. He's got a fun race. You know, he's in a tight race there. But from a polling average and past performance perspective, he's doing OK. I still think that race is going to be close, and my guess is Donald Trump is probably going to get more votes in that state than Ted Cruz is. So I expect both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump to go into Election Day with an advantage and be likely to pull it out.

Speaker 1: Yeah, and that fundraising aspect is so important because talking to Texas Republicans, whenever I refer to Texas as a deep red state, they say, no, no, this is still, you know, a state where we got to put everything out on the line, put it all out there. It still can be tough for Republicans. So certainly trying to gin up that excitement there. We finally want to move out west to Arizona. That's a race we're watching very closely. That's between Republican Carrie Lake and Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego. Scott, I know a lot of recent polls show Gallego growing his lead ahead of Lake. But what is the latest Decision Desk forecasting show?

Speaker 2: So we have it favored for Ruben Gallego, and this is different. Over the summer, Carrie Lake, you know, made it look like this race was 50-50. But Ruben Gallego, both in fundraising, polling average, and forecast, which takes into account all those things, has really pulled ahead. You know, we're in the stretch here. Ruben Gallego, let's just highlight fundraising, is absolutely crushing Carrie Lake in the fundraising side. You know, and considering that she's a pretty national figure on the Republican side, that's good for him. And there's not a lot of time for her to really move the needle. I think one downside for her is this is, you know, she's been running in that state for a long time. There's not a lot of people in the state of Arizona who are going to take a second look. A lot of people have an opinion of her. Less people have an opinion of Ruben Gallego. So it looks good from a momentum standpoint there. The wild card there is Donald Trump is still competitive in that state. And I'm not sure how many split-ticket voters there are. If Donald Trump actually wins that state, does he have enough to pull her across the line? I don't think so, but it's not out of the question.

Speaker 1: It's an interesting state to watch, and it's obviously been interesting since November of 2020 and before that. So certainly interesting times. Scott Tranter, as always, thank you so much for joining us.

Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.

Speaker 1: And that's it for What's America Thinking. I'm Julia Manchester. Come back next week. And be sure to like, share, and subscribe to The Hill's YouTube channel.